Seasonal progress of sea ice albedo
Estimating suitability of sea ice habitat for seal reproduction cycle. In Beaufort Sea, snow melts dates predicted the last dates of lair occupation by ringed seals (Kelly et al., 2010).
(Mordvintsev et al., 2011: Fig.6)
Timeseries for melt onset and freeze onset detection. Adopted (Belchansky et al., 2004, Fig. 4, fragment).
All considered methods for estimating snowmelt onset dates are based on passive microwave data. Timeseries are generated from channels combination (difference). Onset is argument of sharp changing of timeseries variability or crossing threshold value.
Melt onset methods comparison: PMW (Markus and Miller, 2019; Markus et al., 2009), NSIDC (Anderson et al., 2019), AHRA (Drobot and Anderson, 2001) reproduction (Belchansky et al., 2004), MDSDA (Belchansky et al., 2004), “Tentative” (unpublished)
NSIDC snow melt onset (Anderson et al., 2019)
| Period | Length | Mean, DOY | St.dev, days | Julian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988-2001 | 14 | 131.18 | 9.01 | May11 |
| 2002-2009 | 8 | 117.82 | 5.89 | Apr28 |
| 2010-2017 | 8 | 124.10 | 4.77 | May04 |
| Period | Length | Mean, DOY | St.dev, days | Julian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988-2001 | 14 | 133.61 | 8.66 | May14 |
| 2002-2019 | 18 | 123.47 | 6.48 | May03 |
MDSDA (Belchansky et al., 2004) snow melt onset without adaptive smoothing
| Period | Length | Mean, DOY | St.dev, days | Julian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1988-2001 | 14 | 148.02 | 6.53 | May28 |
| 2002-2019 | 18 | 142.67 | 4.35 | May23 |
«Tentative» algorithm (Platonov 2007, unpublished)
| Period | Length | Mean, DOY | St.dev, days | Julian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1989-2013 | 25 | 144.29 | 3.65 | May24 |
| 2014-2019 | 6 | 139.55 | 7.24 | May20 |
The earliest sea ice snowmelt onset dates in 2019.
Low relevance of considered methods.
Improving is required, but have to be not complicated.
Google trends, variability, and periodicity of polar keywords
A.N.Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of Russian Academy of Sciences (IEE RAS)
Permanent Expedition of Russian Academy of Sciences
“Polar Bear Research in the Russian Arctic” Program
Ilia Mordvintsev (IEE RAS)
David Douglas (USGS, AK, Juneau), Area V Activity 02.05-7105 and friendship
Russian Foundation for Basic Research, Project 17-04-02039 (environmental analysis)
Russian Geographical Society (funds for this travel)
WWF Russia (spatial data management for PAMPAN project)
John Bengtson, Vladimir Chernoook (approval for participations)
AMSS-2020 and 26MMWG participants and observers, welcoming Anchorage and Alaska.
Anderson M, Drobot S, Bliss AC. 2019. Snow Melt Onset Over Arctic Sea Ice from SMMR and SSM/I-SSMIS Brightness Temperatures, Version 4. Boulder, Colorado USA: NASA National Snow and Ice Data Center Distributed Active Archive Center. 10.5067/A9YK15H5EBHK.
Belchansky GI, Douglas DC, Mordvintsev IN, Platonov NG. 2004. Estimating the time of melt onset, melt duration and freeze onset over Arctic sea-ice area using active and passive microwave data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 92(1): 21–39. 10.1016/j.rse.2004.05.001.
Drobot SD, Anderson MR. 2001. An improved method for determining snowmelt onset dates over Arctic sea ice using scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data. J Geophys Res, 106: 24, 033–24, 049. 10.1029/2000JD000171.
Kelly BP, Mordvintsev IN, Nghiem S, Boveng P. 2010. Developing a pan Arctic protocol for monitoring seal habitat. In: Marine Mammals of the Holarctic: Collection of Scientific Papers after the Sixth International Conference (Kaliningrad, Russia, October 11–15, 2010). Калиниград: Капрос., pp. 445–450. 978-5-904291-05-1.
Lavielle M. 1999. Detection of multiple changes in a sequence of dependent variables. Stochastic Processes and their Applications, 83(1): 79–102. 10.1016/S0304-4149(99)00023-X.
Lavielle M. 2005. Using penalized contrasts for the change-point problem. Institut national de recherche en informatique et en automatique.
Markus T, Miller J. 2019 (06 December). Arctic sea ice melt. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center’s Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory. https://earth.gsfc.nasa.gov/cryo/data/arctic-sea-ice-melt (accessed 06 January 2020).
Markus T, Stroeve JC, Miller J. 2009. Recent changes in Arctic sea ice melt onset, freezeup, and melt season length. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 114(C12). American Geophysical Union (AGU). C12024. 10.1029/2009JC005436.
Mordvintsev IN, Platonov NG, Alpatsky IV. 2011. Arctic sea ice long-term dynamics according to the satellite microwave data. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 47(9): 1127–1134. Pleiades Publishing Ltd. 10.1134/s0001433811090106.